ATF is adding 4,000 new transferable Machineguns to the registry.

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boomer535

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ATF is changing the classification of about 4,000 Machineguns that were imported for police after 1968 but before 1986. These were originally classified as pre dealer samples but are now classified as fully transferable since they were never imported as dealer samples but went directly to police. According to this video there are MP-5’s that have been added but I bet there are a bunch of Uzi’s too.


 

Dirk Hawthorne

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There are 543,073 transferrable MGs in the registry, according to the BATFE’s 2015 report.

So these 4,000 new guns are a 0.7% increase in the total.

So that means, if supply and demand were hardwired together, that prices will come down $175 on a $25,000 MG.
 

Dirk Hawthorne

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What actually will make prices come down is if there is a big stock market crash again and everyone who is struggling to pay their mortgage on their McMansion have to sell off their boats and Harleys and other toys.
 

amphibian

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There are 543,073 transferrable MGs in the registry, according to the BATFE’s 2015 report.

So these 4,000 new guns are a 0.7% increase in the total.

So that means, if supply and demand were hardwired together, that prices will come down $175 on a $25,000 MG.
Where did you see that number? Last time I saw it was only like around 177,000 transferrable MGs
 

Chef

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What actually will make prices come down is if there is a big stock market crash again and everyone who is struggling to pay their mortgage on their McMansion have to sell off their boats and Harleys and other toys.

Nah.
I'd be willing to bet that most guys who own MGs aren't burdened with mortgages and loans. Before your wife will allow you to spend MG amounts of money, you'd have to be debt free.
 

hkg3k

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Where did you see that number? Last time I saw it was only like around 177,000 transferrable MGs

You're correct, under 180,000 transferable machine guns in the registry.

The poster obviously didn't pay attention and assumed the posted # of machine guns in the registry were transferable machine guns. Not true.
Estimated, in 2006, the registry count of machine guns was 391,532
Estimated, in 2015, the registry count of machine guns was 543,073
Estimated, in 2021 the registry count of machine guns was 741,146

Are we to believe that the # of transferable machine guns almost doubled between 2006 and 2021? Ha Ha...wishful thinking, just like his assertion on the change in valuation of the newly reclassified pre-samples into transferables. :oops:
 

Dirk Hawthorne

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Gee whiz, I made a mistake. I'm unreliable like that. One time I even lost my car keys and had to look for them.

OK, so if the transferrable count is actually 175,977, then the 4000 new guns would be a 2.3% increase in the supply.

The point I was trying to make is that although this news about the 4,000 new transferrables is being trumpeted all over the internet with a lot of enthusiasm, it's really not going to make much difference to the average guy.

It would be nice if some of the new guns were rare ones, like for example, factory IMI UZIs.

And the guys who already own these guns are going to be happy, because their gun is being re-classified to transferrable, which is the most valuable class.

SO, it's good news, but it's "2.3% increase" type of good news.

Personally, I would not buy any of these 4,000 guns. In my mind, they are radioactive dog mess.

My job consists of replacing stuff that the government let rust to death. Seriously, iron oxide has paid for my whole life.

ALL I DO IS CONSTANTLY PARLEY WITH GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. THAT IS MY JOB. Everything I produce gets paid for, reviewed, and then rejected or approved by some branch of the US government.

THE GOVERNMENT IS A MACHINE LIKE A WOODCHIPPER POWERED BY A V-8 ENGINE THAT NEVER RUNS OUT OF GAS AND WON'T EVEN NOTICE IF YOUR ARM IS TORN OFF AND COMES SPRAYING OUT THE CHUTE IN A FOUNTAIN OF MEAT CHUNKS.
Some people have reported that they contacted the ATF, and apparently the ATF guys are completely flummoxed over these 4,000 guns and have no clue exactly how they're being treated legally. It's a completely new thing.

You know what that means? It means at some point in the future, the gooey mess of ever-changing rulings and un-logic that that government uses on everything could be used to de-classify these guns as transferrables.

I'm not being Chicken Little, I know the government. THEY DO NOT CARE ABOUT YOU. THEY CARE ABOUT THE RULE BOOKS. THEY CAN CHANGE THE RULES AND YOU CANNOT DO ANYTHING ABOUT IT UNLESS YOU HAVE AN ENDLESS SUPPLY OF MONEY FOR LAWYERS.


That's why you read about stuff like a guy having his house seized by the IRS because he owed 63 cents on his taxes, or a guy making a goldfish pond in the backyard and the DEP telling him that it's a "navigable waterway." And 10 years of the guy's life goes up in smoke along with $100k in lawyer money.

When the DEP tells me to change my plans to something completely idiotic, I just comply. Because I know I'll never get them to budge. THERE IS NO LOGIC, THERE IS NO HUMANITY, JUST RULE BOOKS THAT WERE REWRITTEN AND REVISED UNTIL THEY ARE LUDICROUS.
 

Dirk Hawthorne

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You're correct, under 180,000 transferable machine guns in the registry.

The poster obviously didn't pay attention and assumed the posted # of machine guns in the registry were transferable machine guns. Not true.
Estimated, in 2006, the registry count of machine guns was 391,532
Estimated, in 2015, the registry count of machine guns was 543,073
Estimated, in 2021 the registry count of machine guns was 741,146

Are we to believe that the # of transferable machine guns almost doubled between 2006 and 2021? Ha Ha...wishful thinking, just like his assertion on the change in valuation of the newly reclassified pre-samples into transferables. :oops:

I didn't assert anything at all about the new value of the re-classified pre-samples.

I said that the 4,000 new guns would not have much effect on the value of existing transferrables. Which is a true statement.

We live in a gigantic country that's full of rich people who love guns.

If you look at the number of existing transferrables, or the number of potential buyers, either way 4,000 guns is a drop in the bucket.
 

arch stanton

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If the 4000 firearms end up transferable this is a huge gain not by percentage but this ends up making many examples of originals that were not available. As for value originals will alway bring more money than clones or conversions. A Vector Uzi may sell for $20K now and the IMI made real Uzi that was a pre-sample may sell for $35K we shall see how this comes out over the next year with sales.
 

Dirk Hawthorne

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I will be very interested to see what kind of guns are being reclassified.

Any predictions?

I'm thinking a lot of 614s and M16s will be included. Just because it's a common police gun.
 

Chef

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I will be very interested to see what kind of guns are being reclassified.

Any predictions?

I'm thinking a lot of 614s and M16s will be included. Just because it's a common police gun.
If there are any pre-sample M16s, they would represent a very minuscule fraction of the pre-sample numbers.

Since M16s were produced in the USA, and were not only in current production in the 1968-1986 time frame, but were also available free from the Govt to LE agencies in the years after Vietnam, the likelyhood of any M16s of any variety being imported before 1986 is super slim.
And the term "imported" is key here. Because pre-samples are only classified as such because they were imported after 1968 and before 1986.
In that time frame, all of the M16s produced by colt would have been considered "transferable" because they were made in the USA.
After 1986, anything imported or manufactured domestically would be considered a "post-sample".
 

mattnh

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I will be very interested to see what kind of guns are being reclassified.

Any predictions?

I'm thinking a lot of 614s and M16s will be included. Just because it's a common police gun.

I’d guess 95% Mp5s & Uzis
Leas common stuff I’ve heard reported: mg34,Beretta m12, Walther MPL/MPK

I’m hoping for a few more FN minimi
Anybody know of other stuff?
 
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hkg3k

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Gee whiz, I made a mistake. I'm unreliable like that.

Gee Whiz and Aw Shucks...you certainly did. By a significant multiple. Credibility...either you post accurate info and have it -or- post garbage and don't. ;)
 

Chef

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Personally, I would not buy any of these 4,000 guns. In my mind, they are radioactive dog mess.


If I were in the market for a MG and I had the choice between a true transferable that was made in the states and registered before 1986, like a Vector UZI, or a Mod A conversion, or one of the newly re-classified, pre-sample/now transferable, imported factory IMI UZIs, I'd buy the ex-pre-sample. Even if I had to pay a third more.
I'd do that happily.
Even knowing full well that the transferable classification could change at any minute and devalue my UZI by more than half, that wouldn't deter me in the slightest.
Because I don't buy things like firearms for investments, I buy them because they are fun and cool. And I don't want look-a-likes or clones, I want the "real deal".
If I want a 1911A1, I'll look for and buy a real US military one, even though I could get a brand new Tisas 1911 clone that's just as good quality and appearance wise, but for 10% of the cost of a "real" one.

Since the difference between a pre-sample and a post-sample is that if you structure your license correctly, you can keep your pre-samples after you drop your SOT, and there is no way to keep your post-samples after you drop your SOT, it makes the risk more tolerable.

So if these pre-samples that became transferable were sold to individuals, and the ATF decided they made a mistake, the chances are very good that the new owners of them would be allowed to retain them and the only difference is that when/if these new owners decide to dispose of them, they could only be sold and transferred to an active SOT.
Unlike if this happened with post-samples. In which case, the new, non-sot owners would most likely have to destroy, surrender or sell them to current SOT licensees.
So in my case, as someone who would love to own "real deal" MGs, I would definitely take the chance and buy one. Because, as I said, I'm not getting one for an investment, nor to hand down to my heirs. So I don't care what the value or transferable status of it is in the future. I just want one for my own amusement.
 

Dirk Hawthorne

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Gee Whiz and Aw Shucks...you certainly did. By a significant multiple. Credibility...either you post accurate info and have it -or- post garbage and don't. ;)

There are people far worse than me. (If you can believe that!) I heard about a guy who went to the store and forgot to get 9v batteries. He promised himself he would remember and just forgot. He has to live with the shame and humiliation to this very day, decades later.
 
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