Tenko Preorder Discount

[A&S Conversions]

This is the difference I see from the Max-10/15. I think that the Max-10/15 is a great product. Even with a quick change barrel system to change caliber, other than a 5.56X45 based casing, the bolt would also would need to be changed. Even with another complete Lage bolt group, this would not be as quick or as easy as changing uppers on a M16 lower.

The Tenko would have the basic functionality of a M16 registered receiver. Once the Tenko adapter is adjusted to the M10 lower receiver, like the AR-15/M16, push two pins pull the hot upper off, put a fresh upper on, push the two pins back in, and go back to shooting.

Yes, I have spent a lot of money. But I am selling about some stuff to raise less than 10% of what I have already spent. I feel that is an acceptable risk. Everyone is different. If I had it to do over again I would certainly do some things differently. But that is water under the bridge.

Certainly, everyone here has the right to their opinion. I am sure that there are some M10 owners who have bought a Max-10/15 that does not have the resources to buy the Tenko. But I don't think that the Tenko adapter will only be for current M10 owners. With the current market value of a M16 compared to a M10, I would think that there will be those that just can not afford the current market value of a M16. Would a M10 with a Tenko, scratch that itch? I personally think that being able to bring new buyers to the platform, would make up some of those lost sales.

Even if the Tenko 10-16 isn't as big as it could have been, there are more than double the number of M11/NINEs in the registry than the M10s. But if we can get the 10-16 off the ground, we'll have the resources and experience to bring the Tenko 11-16 to market. Thank you all for your perspectives, both positive and negative. What would everyone do in my situation, isn't the question. What am I going to do with the Tenko 10-16 adapter is the real question. One way or another I am at least going to resubmit the current design. To those who have given support, thank you very much. It really helps.

Scott

 

[Homer]

Correct me if I'm wrong. The full back story is that a lawyer was hired and the atf was challenged to make a final determination when they were not making determinations. I imagine there was some major brain storming going on to create a reason to reverse their original decision. Lage had a 11/15 on the market yet had to wait 2+ years for a determination on the 10/15. I am on the list for the m11 tenko but using lage as an example it may be 2+ years after the m10 before the 11 comes to market. There will be more costs for that. Push someone into a corner and they may push back.

 

[Homer]

I wouldn’t consider someone who joined a year and a half ago, with no stars

At least one person was on here for years and had 5 stars ($20 donation = 1 star $100 is a pentagon shape more than $100 the stars become a straight line) nothing to do with being an expert! they requested that their information be deleted because of all children in grown men bodies. They signed back on as a different user because in spite of the immaturity here, there is a wealth of knowledge to be had.

 

[nklf]

I think there is definitely a market for the Tenko. Will everyone on the wait list take delivery at any price? Probably not, but some will and some who have not heard of the Tenko yet will want one once it is on the market. An M10 with a Tenko adapter will be much more affordable than a DIAS or HK sear. Hopefully that will allow more people to enjoy our sport/hobby. It also makes the M10 more versatile which unfortunately will drive up the price of the M10. I have a rifle caliber MG, but I still want a Tenko. It's not for everyone, but there are plenty of us who do want one. Sometimes I don't want to take 4 MGs when I'm headed to a shoot. Taking one or two MGs both with pistol and rifle uppers leaves more room for ammo. Scott, I wish you the best and hope you can get this across the finish line.

 

[Deerhurst]

Correct me if I'm wrong. The full back story is that a lawyer was hired and the atf was challenged to make a final determination when they were not making determinations. I imagine there was some major brain storming going on to create a reason to reverse their original decision. Lage had a 11/15 on the market yet had to wait 2+ years for a determination on the 10/15. I am on the list for the m11 tenko but using lage as an example it may be 2+ years after the m10 before the 11 comes to market. There will be more costs for that. Push someone into a corner and they may push back.

Not quite. Lots of important details missing.

 

[Offmarksman]

I am coming at this from the perspective that Scott has already done the cost/benefit analysis of continuing the project, and that his wife is okay with him making a final attempt to bring it to market. I certainly don’t want to see him fail financially or in his marriage.

For what it’s worth, I don’t own a Mac 10 or a Mac 11/9. I have m11a1s., which will have a very low probability of ever being offered. So I have nothing to gain personally from this.

As someone who has been involved in many businesses over the past 33 years, I can tell you that for every 1 person who encouraged me there were 10 telling me it would never work. I have both succeeded and failed, but I have been successful many more times than I have failed. Just Luck? Maybe. Through Gods Grace? Definitely!!

The previous investment in the Tenko is what is called a “sunk cost,” meaning it’s gone. However, if he can bring the product the market he has the opportunity to re-capture some of those losses and possibly make a profit. Again, I haven’t seen his business plan, projections, etc.

I have had business dealings that I lost on, and at some point even accepted that I would lose, but I put more money into it to recapture some of the loss, if I just quit, I would have lost considerably more.

Ultimately, this is Scott’s decision to make. I wish him the best of Luck in whatever he decides to do!!!

 

[Offmarksman]

I wouldn’t consider someone who joined a year and a half ago, with no stars

At least one person was on here for years and had 5 stars ($20 donation = 1 star $100 is a pentagon shape more than $100 the stars become a straight line) nothing to do with being an expert! they requested that their information be deleted because of all children in grown men bodies. They signed back on as a different user because in spite of the immaturity here, there is a wealth of knowledge to be had.

Sorry for being so immature Active Member Homer.

 

[Hey]

I wouldn’t consider someone who joined a year and a half ago, with no stars

At least one person was on here for years and had 5 stars ($20 donation = 1 star $100 is a pentagon shape more than $100 the stars become a straight line)

Just a quick correction… I’ve given more than $100 over the years and the pentagon hasn’t changed to a straight line, it’s stayed the same.

 

[arch stanton]

Stay on track with the discussion. As for the star status the 5 star pentagon is as high as you go Life Member. Read the donation page payment tiers.

 

[skoda]

To me the main advantage of the Tenko over the Lage is that I can go to Palmetto or other low priced sources and get a wide range of uppers for very reasonable prices and switch from one to the other at the range and if I smoke one or two to death it's not a big loss, just get another.

MGs are an expensive hobby and Scott is offering a cheap break through for MAC owners that is different than Lage. When I got my first MAC there were STEN mag conversions, TASK slow fire conversions, and a few hang ons that didn't do much and that was about it.

 

[Gaujo]

If you're going to sell NFA accessories is probably best if the founder is either a lawyer, an engineer, or both. I'm sure Scott feels this way too, but the man wants to get his product to market and there are people that want to buy it. I'm hoping this is the last push for his sake and for his family.

 

[Maniac11/9]

I wish Scott luck and hope this still comes to fruition. I’ll be waiting for the M11/9 version. I’m grateful for people like Scott that have taken risks and/or made personal sacrifices for the MAC family and have made it the platform that it is today. It’s always exciting to see the new ideas/accessories that people come up with. Without these innovations that have come out, I probably wouldn’t be a MG owner right now. The versatility of the MAC platform is what sold me.

 

[A&S Conversions]

Correct me if I'm wrong. The full back story is that a lawyer was hired and the atf was challenged to make a final determination when they were not making determinations. I imagine there was some major brain storming going on to create a reason to reverse their original decision. Lage had a 11/15 on the market yet had to wait 2+ years for a determination on the 10/15. I am on the list for the m11 tenko but using lage as an example it may be 2+ years after the m10 before the 11 comes to market. There will be more costs for that. Push someone into a corner and they may push back.

Did I make the biggest financial mistake of my life? Absolutely, hindsight, it is said, is 20/20. No one, including the NFA lawyer and the ATF didn't tell me they were going to stop determinations for small entities for a couple of years. But woulda, coulda, shoulda, I can't go back and change it.

The year before I got the determination of the 3D plastic version in 108 days. When we first submitted the billet aluminum version the ATF said that I should receive a determination in six months. The second aluminum submission, which was supposed to take the place of the first aluminum submission was supposed to have a determination in eight months. After over a year I sent emails and phone calls to find out our status. Someone always answered the phone, but when I would get connected no one would answer. Then the operator stopped connecting me. I never got any emails returned, ever.

Who backed who into a corner? I just wanted some kind of time frame so I could figure out how I should structure our debt. Instead, POOF, the billet version is a machinegun. Of course that is with the adapter in a vice bolted to a table, a C-clamp holding a peice of angle iron to hold the buffer and spring inside the back of the adapter, and various zip ties holding the fire control. Then they reached underneath with a prybar and got the adapter to fire several rounds. That doesn't seem fair to me. Especially, after we said that we were going to market with the 3D printed one and the ATF said that they didn't actually test the 3D printed one because they were afraid that it would not hold up, but they still gave us the determination that the 3D printed version was not a machinegun.

The lawyer, who has been dealing with the Technology Branch for over 20 years said what was done to me was the most egregious treatment he had ever seen from the ATF. He said if I wanted I could sue. He would need $100,000 retainer and two to three years for appeals. He said that since the courts look to the ATF as experts, he doubted we would win.

We have turned ourselves inside out trying to keep the basic design, but make it so that what the ATF did, would not make the adapter fire. It was 10 times harder modifying the design than coming up with the original design.

Did I make a huge mistake? Absolutely, I did. But I can't undo it. I can only move forward from here. Is the Tenko as ergonomic as a M16? No, it is an adapter. It seems several others, along with myself, think that having the basic functionality of a M16 for half the market value of a M16 has some appeal. I believe that a profit could be made. Maybe I am throwing good money after bad. I don't think so. Hopefully we will get a positive determination and can find out. YMMV.

Scott
Manager A&S Conversions L.L.C.

 

[Esox]

Scott,

I have taken great pleasure in reading many of your machine gun forum posts over the years and I have a tremendous amount of respect for you. I hate seeing you in this situation, so I'm saying this out of empathy...please be clear-headed and pragmatic about the business plan for the Tenko.

So many people try to start businesses based on their hobby and end up bankrupt, or worse, bankrupt and hating the hobby they once enjoyed. It's because they are passionate about the product/service and not passionate about the business. Once you start a business it's now ONLY about profitablity. Your Tenko idea is very clever and you are passionate about it, but will it be a profitable business?

The fact that you needed to outsource all of your engineering has really hampered you. An endeavor like this is probably best suited for someone who knows CAD, CAM and has a CNC mill to work out the prototyping and initial production runs at very low relative cost. God forbid the ATF requires yet another change because that's now more sunk capital. Outsourcing all of your manufacturing and finishing takes a major hit in profit margin. Outsourcing the sales and product support logistics to Sam at Practical Solutions further cuts into your profit margin. Do you know what your profit margin will be after ALL expenses are totaled? At a retail price of $3K (based on Lage Mfg.'s business model...which is NOT the same as yours), if you have a 75% margin then you will need to sell 111 of these just to recoup your $250K investment. If you cut the price to $1K to compete better and sell a higher volume, then you will need to sell 333. What kind of volume price breaks do you get from your manufacturers and retailer? What market survey information do you have? These are tough question for such a low volume niche product with almost no market information. Ask a forum if they would want one and almost everyone will say "yes" because there is no repercussion for saying "no". Lots of inherent risk.

You have real market competition already with the MAX-10/15. Quite frankly, the only advantages that I see of the Tenko is the ability to quickly swap uppers if the barrel gets hot and the exquisite option of a $5K+ FightLite (i.e., Shrike) belt-fed upper. I seriously doubt that when people are shopping for MAC-10 5.56 uppers that these are major considerations. Most people with a belt fed upper already have an M16/DIAS/RLL. More than likely your potential customers are those that ONLY have a MAC-10 (i.e., the entry level MG owner) and just want a 5.56 upper that looks cool to impress their range friends. All transferrable MGs are simply range toys. The Tenko does not 'look' like an M16 and, IMHO, simply does not have the aesthetic appeal of the MAX-10/15. In my opinion, it gives a first impression of something cobbled together and not 'cool looking'. This is your weakest product point. I also suspect that the initial bow-wave of customers for a new product has already been captured by the MAX-10/15 and every day that your product is not on the market, this gap will widen. Lage Mfg. also has an established reputation for stellar customer service. Maybe your best bet to compete with Lage is to undercut their pricing by at least 50%. If you keep it below $1K (if that's even possible) that opens up a broader potential customer pool. You'll need some market research to figure this out. Actual sales information on the MAX-10/15 would be very insightful, if Richard would be willing to share that...but you are trying to be his competitor!

All that being said, IMHO, you need to assess what your real and achievable business objectives are. Do you want to just focus on recouping part or all of your investment? Focus on profitability? Over what timeframe? Perhaps you could consider selling the complete business outright to Lage or Practical Solutions. I'm sure its been a lot of work to date, but the workload isn't going to let up once you bring the product to market...its going to get worse. You need to think clearly and objectively on this.

Finally, small businesses often overlook the 'cost of money' in their calculations. If that $250K initial investment was in the S&P500 5 years ago, it would be worth $477K today. So, you really need to sell 212 $3K units at 75% profit margin to 'break even'. Keep that in mind with every additional dollar 'invested' in your business plan.

Owning and running a successful business is hard. 20% of new businesses fail during the first two years of being open, 45% during the first five years, and 65% during the first 10 years. Only 25% of new businesses make it to 15 years or more.

I wish you all the best! Be smart.

Esox

 

[Gaujo]

The wounds of a friend can be trusted, but even the kisses of an enemy are deceitful.

 

[Offmarksman]

The $250k is sunk. What we are talking abou

Scott,

I have taken great pleasure in reading many of your machine gun forum posts over the years and I have a tremendous amount of respect for you. I hate seeing you in this situation, so I'm saying this out of empathy...please be clear-headed and pragmatic about the business plan for the Tenko.

So many people try to start businesses based on their hobby and end up bankrupt, or worse, bankrupt and hating the hobby they once enjoyed. It's because they are passionate about the product/service and not passionate about the business. Once you start a business it's now ONLY about profitablity. Your Tenko idea is very clever and you are passionate about it, but will it be a profitable business?

The fact that you needed to outsource all of your engineering has really hampered you. An endeavor like this is probably best suited for someone who knows CAD, CAM and has a CNC mill to work out the prototyping and initial production runs at very low relative cost. God forbid the ATF requires yet another change because that's now more sunk capital. Outsourcing all of your manufacturing and finishing takes a major hit in profit margin. Outsourcing the sales and product support logistics to Sam at Practical Solutions further cuts into your profit margin. Do you know what your profit margin will be after ALL expenses are totaled? At a retail price of $3K (based on Lage Mfg.'s business model...which is NOT the same as yours), if you have a 75% margin then you will need to sell 111 of these just to recoup your $250K investment. If you cut the price to $1K to compete better and sell a higher volume, then you will need to sell 333. What kind of volume price breaks do you get from your manufacturers and retailer? What market survey information do you have? These are tough question for such a low volume niche product with almost no market information. Ask a forum if they would want one and almost everyone will say "yes" because there is no repercussion for saying "no". Lots of inherent risk.

You have real market competition already with the MAX-10/15. Quite frankly, the only advantages that I see of the Tenko is the ability to quickly swap uppers if the barrel gets hot and the exquisite option of a $5K+ FightLite (i.e., Shrike) belt-fed upper. I seriously doubt that when people are shopping for MAC-10 5.56 uppers that these are major considerations. Most people with a belt fed upper already have an M16/DIAS/RLL. More than likely your potential customers are those that ONLY have a MAC-10 (i.e., the entry level MG owner) and just want a 5.56 upper that looks cool to impress their range friends. All transferrable MGs are simply range toys. The Tenko does not 'look' like an M16 and, IMHO, simply does not have the aesthetic appeal of the MAX-10/15. In my opinion, it gives a first impression of something cobbled together and not 'cool looking'. This is your weakest product point. I also suspect that the initial bow-wave of customers for a new product has already been captured by the MAX-10/15 and every day that your product is not on the market, this gap will widen. Lage Mfg. also has an established reputation for stellar customer service. Maybe your best bet to compete with Lage is to undercut their pricing by at least 50%. If you keep it below $1K (if that's even possible) that opens up a broader potential customer pool. You'll need some market research to figure this out. Actual sales information on the MAX-10/15 would be very insightful, if Richard would be willing to share that...but you are trying to be his competitor!

All that being said, IMHO, you need to assess what your real and achievable business objectives are. Do you want to just focus on recouping part or all of your investment? Focus on profitability? Over what timeframe? Perhaps you could consider selling the complete business outright to Lage or Practical Solutions. I'm sure its been a lot of work to date, but the workload isn't going to let up once you bring the product to market...its going to get worse. You need to think clearly and objectively on this.

Finally, small businesses often overlook the 'cost of money' in their calculations. If that $250K initial investment was in the S&P500 5 years ago, it would be worth $477K today. So, you really need to sell 212 $3K units at 75% profit margin to 'break even'. Keep that in mind with every additional dollar 'invested' in your business plan.

Owning and running a successful business is hard. 20% of new businesses fail during the first two years of being open, 45% during the first five years, and 65% during the first 10 years. Only 25% of new businesses make it to 15 years or more.

I wish you all the best! Be smart.

Es

The $250k is sunk. So what we are discussing at this point is what will a $25k investment net. The risk/reward decision should be based entirely on that.

Maybe $25k is a bad investment, I would need to know more.

There is a BIG difference between Entrepreneurs, and Corporate Business people (they have to answer to someone for their failures). The Entrepreneur wears all the mistake on his or her own. Just Sayin….

 

[Deerhurst]

No need for expensive CAM and CNC for prototype work. From the photos I've seen it's all pretty easily done on inexpensive manual machines from paper sketches. My employer designed all sorts of things over the years with Freehand and Illustrator. Unless there is some very complex geometry inside I see no need to push for expensive CAD/CAM/CNC. CAD makes things easier for sure. CNC makes production runs faster and cheaper but the investment cost is quite a bit.

I say this as someone who designs things then machines everything I design. That is my day job for production support and my hobby to support my hobbies (not financially) and make them go bang.

 

[skiboatsp]

I build geometry in MC then cut tooling foam. Then test fit. Modify geometry sometimes by a few thousants. Then recut in inexpensive hard tooling foam. I do this sometimes several times to proof my designs.

Having CAM and even a basic Prototrak 2 axis mill is needed for somewhat complex projects.

Yes I use manual equipment also but prototyping some type of CNC is a must.

I can't manually remake / modify parts quickly and efficiently with manual equipment.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/3552695853...1291&msclkid=dcd66a793970193041cc0ffcc593517f

 

[Deerhurst]

We do everything manually where I work. We have never needed CNC. Hell, CNC is a pretty new thing. My mill has a tracer, pre NC tech! My lathe is from 1947, pre tracer tech! Just removed the original selenium rectifiers a couple months ago! I usually just use aluminum for my first prototypes. After time in Solid Edge or Solidworks I generally do not need to change anything until I get time with a functional prototype machine. Assemblies rock!

Prototyping is not about making things and efficiently, in my line of work. It's about making a test piece. CNC is pretty slick and nice but not necessary in any way, especially for a piece or two. CNC is nice for longer runs. Can do a LOT more than I can in the same timeframe. I'm the #3 machinist in the company I work for. #1 and #2 can crank out some parts. It's impressive. I've seen them do what I do in a couple hours in less than half that.


Everyone has a different method though CNC is not a necessity. People made amazing parts manually. Check out some of the old Bridgeport accessories from back in the day. They did things we can't do without a cutter on the end of a multi axis robot arm. some really cools stuff out there!

 

[skiboatsp]

I have a 90 deg Bridgeport head like you show. CNC a pretty new thing? I punched Newmeridex cards in the 70,s New?

In Atlanta you will not find any serious money making machine shop using only manual machines...No where!

I'm a 45 yr accomplished ME / CNC programmer / machinist. You have to be kidding. Where in the world do you work?