Thoughts on future UZI SMG prices

CQB762

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First thanks to everyone who has posted replies to my posts about getting my first UZI.

Im on my way to raising funds for my first purchase, and trying to learn as much as possible about the Transferable market and its history. It’s like drinking water from a fire hose. I have also discovered Richard w/ BWE what a great resource. RIP brother….

With the recent announcement about many pre samples becoming transferable, and the new political environment. ? I know that prices have consistently gone up but is there a chance that they could level off or drop with more inventory especially “real” Israel made SMG‘s in the market. Maybe some will want to upgrade and sell the RR conversions. Plus with the new political environment “probably less than 1%” that the NFA rules get relaxed over the next 4 years. Could all of this be a perfect storm for prices to stay flat until next spring when I have the funds available.
 

slimshady

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Supply and demand. Finite amount of transferable MGs, the influx of newly transferable pre 86 dealer samples is but a drop in the bucket. Plus being OEM MGs versus a conversion or rebuild puts them in the higher end collector market. Yes, some may sell once they upgrade, but the supply is still far less than the demand, especially for someone looking for a toy to shoot.

OTOH, prices tend to slowly creep up so I doubt we will see a huge jump in the next few months. Plus if you wait for a deal versus buying the first one in your budget range you might get a bargain over today's prices.

The big unknown is the incoming administration and their appointments. A pro-gun head of DOJ, AFT, and Solicitor General could be the perfect storm for a SCOTUS overturn of the NFA, or at least some parts of it. Bruen demands a 235 year old or older law similar to the NFA and there isn't one. Plus likely at least one Justice hostile to the 2A will be replaced. I dunno the percentage, but much more than 1% if the right case comes up.
 

Slowmo

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Don’t forget inflation. They’re printing new dollars everyday, but not making new transferable machines guns (besides the small group of pre-86 samples).

With unsustainable levels of debt and deficit spending, who knows what the dollar’s future holds. I’m not a doomsayer type, but the math doesn’t look good. We’re on the course towards future default unless someone turns the ship.
 

APEXgunparts

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Remember when we were on track to have suppressors removed from the NFA?
It was a hearing protection act.
The support for that effort was in the US Congress, and there were people from shooter organizations who rallied that support by meeting with key people in Congress.
Then the word got around and there was this push to add SBR's to the effort and have them taken off the NFA, EXCEPT there was NO support in the US Congress to do that.
That push started to muddy the issue, and the people who worked so hard to get suppressors off the NFA were getting worried that SBR's would kill the bill.
What did kill the effort was a mass shooting, and the people working the bill sensed the loss of support in Congress and dropped the effort rather than have it fail.
I hope they try again this coming year.

What was the point of this post? That it take's support of the US Congress to make big changes with the ATF.
The US Congress funds, mans and equips the ATF as well as the departments it falls under.
They all take direction from the US Congress.
Don't expect that a change in director will make everything as it was, you need to contact your Congress person and let your wants be known.
Lots of people in the US Congress have no idea about the NFA or the ATF policies that make running a business difficult for manufacturers, gun shops, distributors and importers.

Richard
 

Jones

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Uzis have a reputation and a history and are not a flash-in-the-pan, this month's gotta have craze firearm.
I agree with the others; demand/price is going to continue to rise, as quantities of available Uzis dwindle.
 

JoshNC

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Remember when we were on track to have suppressors removed from the NFA?
It was a hearing protection act.
The support for that effort was in the US Congress, and there were people from shooter organizations who rallied that support by meeting with key people in Congress.
Then the word got around and there was this push to add SBR's to the effort and have them taken off the NFA, EXCEPT there was NO support in the US Congress to do that.
That push started to muddy the issue, and the people who worked so hard to get suppressors off the NFA were getting worried that SBR's would kill the bill.
What did kill the effort was a mass shooting, and the people working the bill sensed the loss of support in Congress and dropped the effort rather than have it fail.
I hope they try again this coming year.

What was the point of this post? That it take's support of the US Congress to make big changes with the ATF.
The US Congress funds, mans and equips the ATF as well as the departments it falls under.
They all take direction from the US Congress.
Don't expect that a change in director will make everything as it was, you need to contact your Congress person and let your wants be known.
Lots of people in the US Congress have no idea about the NFA or the ATF policies that make running a business difficult for manufacturers, gun shops, distributors and importers.

Richard

Better yet, we need decisive court victories.

An importer needs to submit a form-6 to import a rifle that fails 925(d)(3) “sporting clause” and when atf denies they sue the government over the unconstitutionality of the law. Do the same with an imported SBR, SBS, AOW, and silencer. Then go after SBR/SBS/AOW to remove them from the purview of the NFA. Then go after 922(o). And finally go after the entire NFA.

None of these laws pass the scrutiny of Bruen. And Heller and McDonald lend further support.
 

slimshady

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With all the shockwave not a shotguns out there plus the registered shotguns out there they have a hard time arguing they aren't in common use. The only difference between a shockwave and an SBS is whether or not it originally came with a stock, you could literally put both on a table and no one could tell you which one was the SBS without running the serial numbers.

Same with SBRs, many registered and a brace equipped "pistol" has already been declared to be an SBR by AFT. Common use.
 

nklf

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In my opinion Uzi prices will continue to go up but at perhaps a slower rate that we have seen the past few years. Supply is limited and demand is increasing. Or should I say the number of people with funds to get in the NFA game is increasing. If the Dems had won there might have been a run up in prices as people panic buy. The Uzi is Iconic and will always be in demand.
 

CKxx

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The big unknown is the incoming administration and their appointments. A pro-gun head of DOJ, AFT, and Solicitor General could be the perfect storm for a SCOTUS overturn of the NFA, or at least some parts of it. Bruen demands a 235 year old or older law similar to the NFA and there isn't one. Plus likely at least one Justice hostile to the 2A will be replaced. I dunno the percentage, but much more than 1% if the right case comes up.

This should be everyone's present "concern." Many refuse to believe the NFA will ever change or go away, but, historically, it's not at all impossible.

It should be noted that even if NO laws change, the ATF has the right to declare amnesty periods, as they have twice in the past. You'd see 100,000 new modern MGs in a 60-day period.
 

CQB762

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This should be everyone's present "concern." Many refuse to believe the NFA will ever change or go away, but, historically, it's not at all impossible.

It should be noted that even if NO laws change, the ATF has the right to declare amnesty periods, as they have twice in the past. You'd see 100,000 new modern MGs in a 60-day period.
That would truly be a game changer…. The price of parts kits would definitely go through the roof and simi receivers. I would kick myself for selling my IMI mini 10+ years ago.
 

Slowmo

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That would truly be a game changer…. The price of parts kits would definitely go through the roof and simi receivers. I would kick myself for selling my IMI mini 10+ years ago.
Honestly, if there was an amnesty window, I bet most of the older guns would go down in price as a result. People would register MP5 clones and AR15 conversions in droves. You’d end up with a much larger supply of guns that are both more modern in design and newer in terms of wear and tear competing against old and perhaps more worn samples. I’m sure some folks would build/register the classics, but I doubt that would be where most of the attention went.
 

Bret

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Or should I say the number of people with funds to get in the NFA game is increasing.
I think this is a big part of what will keep the prices going up. More people with the wealth to purchase full autos are interested now in purchasing full autos than were interested in the past.

Honestly, if there was an amnesty window, I bet most of the older guns would go down in price as a result. People would register MP5 clones and AR15 conversions in droves. You’d end up with a much larger supply of guns that are both more modern in design and newer in terms of wear and tear competing against old and perhaps more worn samples. I’m sure some folks would build/register the classics, but I doubt that would be where most of the attention went.
If there was an amnesty, it would only be for firearms that were made prior to the amnesty. Making a full auto during the amnesty would still be a felony. This is the way that it was with the '68 amnesty and the recent pistol brace amnesty.
 

slimshady

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You acquired it the day before the amnesty began. Let them prove otherwise.

When the 68 amnesty happened there was no need to use it to make a new MG, you could still file a form 1.
 

ericthered

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Honestly, if there was an amnesty window, I bet most of the older guns would go down in price as a result. People would register MP5 clones and AR15 conversions in droves. You’d end up with a much larger supply of guns that are both more modern in design and newer in terms of wear and tear competing against old and perhaps more worn samples. I’m sure some folks would build/register the classics, but I doubt that would be where most of the attention went.
I would agree. However, there is still the collector market. So for the collectibles, I would think the price would drop, but never match any potential amnesty guns.
 

CKxx

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If there was an amnesty, it would only be for firearms that were made prior to the amnesty. Making a full auto during the amnesty would still be a felony. This is the way that it was with the '68 amnesty and the recent pistol brace amnesty.
You have a very optimistic interpretation of reality.
 

Dirk Hawthorne

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Whatever you want, go ahead and buy it now.

The prices are not going to come down and they won't even level off until the prices are so nosebleed high that hardly anyone can afford them.
We are not anywhere close to that yet.

Picture a guy who is 55 years old. The guy is an electrical engineering manager. His wife works in a law office.
They make $300,000 per year between them.

Their house is paid off, their kids' college is paid off. They're banking $8,000+ per month into savings.

The guy has worked his whole life, now he wants a Vette and an UZI.

When the price of UZIs goes from $18k to $25k, what does he care? He makes $1,000 per day.

THERE ARE 31 MILLION PEOPLE IN THE USA who are between 50 and 65 years old. Figure that the top 5% of them can afford to throw money around like I described. That means there are 1.5 million guys in the USA who fit the description.

There is a HUGE number of people like this out there and a small, finite number of UZIs that come up for sale.

We just had a global pandemic and the stock market tanked like 25% and the prices of MGs still didn't come down. If that didn't do it, nothing will.

As far as Hughes being rescinded, that would take a national political push on par with when they passed the Brady Bill. And why would any politician spend the political capital on it?

The only actual job that any politician has is to get re-elected. That's the only thing they actually care about.

Seriously, picture the optics of the Democrats running endless ads showing the North Hollywood shootout, guys with AKs ripping up cop cars. MGs are political poison, nobody is going to touch it.

The republicans have more power now than they have had in a LONG time. I'll bet any amount of money that they won't even mention MGs.
 
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Galil#1

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^^^^^^ BINGO ^^^^^^^ Spot On.
These FA firearms will never really go down, only up up up up. If anyone seriously believes they will go down $$$, like to know what you smoking/dope your on Ha!
 

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