Will M16 values Plummet in the light of Forced Reset Triggers Being Legal
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ericthered
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Is that with a revolver?
Alaska_Shooter
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The fake MG comments are funny since they’re based on what the Feds claim is a MG or not and not the effective outcome of the device.
It’s like this in any type of collecting of objects. I’m more of an experience guy. I’m having a ton of fun leaving the MGs in the safe and playing with FRTs
FRTs effectively give the same exact outcome as registered MGs for me.
The only experiential difference between the two is the form-4 and the elite bragging rights that used to exist for form-4 MGs. Those bragging rights are disappearing
It’s like this in any type of collecting of objects. I’m more of an experience guy. I’m having a ton of fun leaving the MGs in the safe and playing with FRTs
FRTs effectively give the same exact outcome as registered MGs for me.
The only experiential difference between the two is the form-4 and the elite bragging rights that used to exist for form-4 MGs. Those bragging rights are disappearing
gorillastomp
UZI Talk Life Member
If you look at prices in the NFA market it is softer now. It could be because of the FRTs I suppose. My opinion is there will be people that will always want to own a real transferable. However with the rapid growing technology in the FRTs modern gun platforms (like the Kuna) those will affect the market.
The older WW bring backs will always be desirable and collectible. A factory pre-May now transferable I don’t see demanding an extreme high premium much longer.
The 10/22 FRT has me excited. Always wanted a Norrell pack. For 100$ I can have a cheap version. They been running $20k or so. I would hate to think what the value of these will be in the future. Remember the FRTs are fast and require no fingerprints/paperwork. These are just my opinions.
The older WW bring backs will always be desirable and collectible. A factory pre-May now transferable I don’t see demanding an extreme high premium much longer.
The 10/22 FRT has me excited. Always wanted a Norrell pack. For 100$ I can have a cheap version. They been running $20k or so. I would hate to think what the value of these will be in the future. Remember the FRTs are fast and require no fingerprints/paperwork. These are just my opinions.
A&S Conversions
UZI Talk Life Member
Certainly, this is an interesting exercise. But I think to actually answer whether the FRT/SS will affect transferable market values, I think that there is far too much focus on functionality rather than paperwork. In the US, what makes a transferable machine gun so much more valuable than a semi auto of the same model? The Federal paperwork that lists the machine gun as being in the NFA registry prior to May 19, 1986. That is what makes machine guns so expensive.
A search gave me a number of 70-100 Bugattis are produced per year. So if you include the used ones that change hands every year, that is probably around the number of transferables that change hands per year. Do any of you think that the pricing of Ford Mustang GTs or Dodge Hemi sports cars effect Bugatti sales? I personally don’t.
I think that the guys who believe that the FRT/SS will effect transferable market values are focused on functionality, not what actually makes a transferable different from a semi with a FRT/SS in it.
I have seen several transferable owners post that they are leaving their transferables in the safe and just using their FRT/SS in a semi. If the FRT/SS was going to actually make transferables market value lower, I have yet to see any such owner posting that they have sold their transferables because they actually think they will be worth significantly less very soon.
As far as transferable market values getting soft, I work in the construction industry. This year there has been a sharp downturn in new commercial building starts. With the uncertainty in this market as to how much steel, lumber, and concrete will cost and whether there will or won’t be tariffs and how much those tariffs will be along with interest rates, has really slowed construction. It was the same way in 2006 and 7. Companies are cutting back. They might not be laying off, but they aren’t hiring. Gold is up and copper has dropped 20% in the last month. The economy is heading down in a big way by the indicators that I know. I have found that luxury items pricing tends to soften as the economy slows. I would imagine, anyone buying a transferable doesn’t “need” a machine gun. They want a machine gun and are willing to part with thousands or even tens of thousands of dollars to buy it. It certainly wouldn’t be lumped in with food or housing.
Again, Bugatti or Mustang GT. Both could get you in trouble with the law for going too fast. But I don’t think one market has much of anything to do with the other. Maybe I’m wrong, but I can’t imagine that there are many buyers of fast cars choosing between a Bugatti and a Mustang GT or a fast firing firearm buyer choosing between a Colt M16A1 and a FRT/SS in a semi. YMMV.
Scott
A search gave me a number of 70-100 Bugattis are produced per year. So if you include the used ones that change hands every year, that is probably around the number of transferables that change hands per year. Do any of you think that the pricing of Ford Mustang GTs or Dodge Hemi sports cars effect Bugatti sales? I personally don’t.
I think that the guys who believe that the FRT/SS will effect transferable market values are focused on functionality, not what actually makes a transferable different from a semi with a FRT/SS in it.
I have seen several transferable owners post that they are leaving their transferables in the safe and just using their FRT/SS in a semi. If the FRT/SS was going to actually make transferables market value lower, I have yet to see any such owner posting that they have sold their transferables because they actually think they will be worth significantly less very soon.
As far as transferable market values getting soft, I work in the construction industry. This year there has been a sharp downturn in new commercial building starts. With the uncertainty in this market as to how much steel, lumber, and concrete will cost and whether there will or won’t be tariffs and how much those tariffs will be along with interest rates, has really slowed construction. It was the same way in 2006 and 7. Companies are cutting back. They might not be laying off, but they aren’t hiring. Gold is up and copper has dropped 20% in the last month. The economy is heading down in a big way by the indicators that I know. I have found that luxury items pricing tends to soften as the economy slows. I would imagine, anyone buying a transferable doesn’t “need” a machine gun. They want a machine gun and are willing to part with thousands or even tens of thousands of dollars to buy it. It certainly wouldn’t be lumped in with food or housing.
Again, Bugatti or Mustang GT. Both could get you in trouble with the law for going too fast. But I don’t think one market has much of anything to do with the other. Maybe I’m wrong, but I can’t imagine that there are many buyers of fast cars choosing between a Bugatti and a Mustang GT or a fast firing firearm buyer choosing between a Colt M16A1 and a FRT/SS in a semi. YMMV.
Scott
I think you're making the case, several transferable owners are leaving their machine guns in the safe and buying multiple super safety guns for actual shooting. They are wanting something to shoot, and putting away the actual machine guns. You have increased a supply and lowered the demand on the other product. Say a lot of people do the exact same thing. Instead of buying a new or different machine gun they scratch that itch with a semi-automatic super safety equipped gun.
Before this option existed, everybody that wanted to shoot fast was limited to a finite supply of legal machine guns. Now that it does exist the vast majority of people who want a machine gun just wanted to shoot fast, the investment value or historical value was just a bonus or side effect, so the super safety is a viable option and they no longer are adding to the demand, in fact they're subtracting from it. Sure I may be able to afford $20,000 for a toy, but when a similar option becomes available for a few hundred dollars I can think of better places to spend with the other $19,000 or so.
Now the guy with the existing machine gun in inventory is thinking the same thing, why do I have all this money wrapped up in something I'm not going to shoot anymore. Why not sell it and get into something else? Or even invested into something that gives a higher return. So now I go to sell it. The number of people lining up to buy it are reduced. Maybe it's a popular model there's a lot of competition. Prices are going to hold steady at best or go down..
Before this option existed, everybody that wanted to shoot fast was limited to a finite supply of legal machine guns. Now that it does exist the vast majority of people who want a machine gun just wanted to shoot fast, the investment value or historical value was just a bonus or side effect, so the super safety is a viable option and they no longer are adding to the demand, in fact they're subtracting from it. Sure I may be able to afford $20,000 for a toy, but when a similar option becomes available for a few hundred dollars I can think of better places to spend with the other $19,000 or so.
Now the guy with the existing machine gun in inventory is thinking the same thing, why do I have all this money wrapped up in something I'm not going to shoot anymore. Why not sell it and get into something else? Or even invested into something that gives a higher return. So now I go to sell it. The number of people lining up to buy it are reduced. Maybe it's a popular model there's a lot of competition. Prices are going to hold steady at best or go down..
Are FRTs having an effect on the transferables market? IMO, absolutely, you betcha. For anyone with a MG currently up for sale -or- who closely follows the market...it's unmistakable. Are FRTs the only reason the market is currently soft? Probably not, but IMO, it's far and away the dominant reason currently. Are FRTs affecting the MG market across the entire spectrum? No, IMO, it boils down to shooters vs pure collectors.
Are FRTs affecting the Colt 1927 Thompson (rarest of the Colt Thompsons) market? No, I don't think that buyer / collector would defer buying a 1927 Colt Thompson that came up for sale, simply b/c they can drop a FRT into something else.
Are FRTs affecting 1st or 2nd time buyer (shooter) looking for an entry level MAC, M16 or HK? IMO, yes. I believe the majority of those buyers are deferring that spend of the tens of thousands of dollars to at least give the FRT a try to see what everyone is talking about. And what they're finding out...is that it's experientially the same.
Having said that, it's my personal opinion that FRTs will have a "shelf life." There's a bunch of states where they're already banned and that number is going to grow over time (especially if we have a mass shooter with a firearms so equipped). Though the SC ruled the ATF overstepped its bounds in declaring them MGs, there's always the possibility of a Federal legislative remedy in defining / banning them.
IMO, the final story on FRTs won't be written until there's a SC challenge to the laws in those states where they've been banned. In the meantime, I'll continue to enjoy them and continue to marvel them as the most significant innovation to semi-auto fire control since the Lightening Link or RDIAS.
Are FRTs affecting the Colt 1927 Thompson (rarest of the Colt Thompsons) market? No, I don't think that buyer / collector would defer buying a 1927 Colt Thompson that came up for sale, simply b/c they can drop a FRT into something else.
Are FRTs affecting 1st or 2nd time buyer (shooter) looking for an entry level MAC, M16 or HK? IMO, yes. I believe the majority of those buyers are deferring that spend of the tens of thousands of dollars to at least give the FRT a try to see what everyone is talking about. And what they're finding out...is that it's experientially the same.
Having said that, it's my personal opinion that FRTs will have a "shelf life." There's a bunch of states where they're already banned and that number is going to grow over time (especially if we have a mass shooter with a firearms so equipped). Though the SC ruled the ATF overstepped its bounds in declaring them MGs, there's always the possibility of a Federal legislative remedy in defining / banning them.
IMO, the final story on FRTs won't be written until there's a SC challenge to the laws in those states where they've been banned. In the meantime, I'll continue to enjoy them and continue to marvel them as the most significant innovation to semi-auto fire control since the Lightening Link or RDIAS.
medphys
UZI Talk Life Member
I know the original context of this thread was geared towards M16s, but I'm actually in this situation.
The FRT's are a game changer. I've never been an "AR guy" and could/would never consider a transferable M16. However, I now have an SSAR and will be getting the 10/22 FRT. Probably SBRing to make it a quasi AM180. These will be excellent toys for dumping ammo and have a real cool factor.
That being said, I'm still getting back into the subgun game. I sold my M11 several years ago, and recently realized how much I missed it. Cleaning, modding, reloading, show and tell, subgun matches, the overall simplicity and the mechanics of them. All of this combined is what draws me back to a subgun. Is there a 9mm FRT platform that would allow me to do that? I'm not sure. Like I said, I'm not an AR guy so an AR9 has no appeal to me. I have a semi Scorpion that would be fun with an FRT, but it'd be a challenge to tame the recoil with the blow back short stroke. MP5? Perhaps.
Ultimately there's something about an old open bolt subgun that is very appealing to me. But again, this is me and you can do you
But back to the AR/M16 question- I suspect that lightning links and sears will drop in price slightly (much like registered Uzi bolts), but registered receivers will be ok and probably be unaffected by the FRTs much like others on the thread have said.
The FRT's are a game changer. I've never been an "AR guy" and could/would never consider a transferable M16. However, I now have an SSAR and will be getting the 10/22 FRT. Probably SBRing to make it a quasi AM180. These will be excellent toys for dumping ammo and have a real cool factor.
That being said, I'm still getting back into the subgun game. I sold my M11 several years ago, and recently realized how much I missed it. Cleaning, modding, reloading, show and tell, subgun matches, the overall simplicity and the mechanics of them. All of this combined is what draws me back to a subgun. Is there a 9mm FRT platform that would allow me to do that? I'm not sure. Like I said, I'm not an AR guy so an AR9 has no appeal to me. I have a semi Scorpion that would be fun with an FRT, but it'd be a challenge to tame the recoil with the blow back short stroke. MP5? Perhaps.
Ultimately there's something about an old open bolt subgun that is very appealing to me. But again, this is me and you can do you
But back to the AR/M16 question- I suspect that lightning links and sears will drop in price slightly (much like registered Uzi bolts), but registered receivers will be ok and probably be unaffected by the FRTs much like others on the thread have said.
Alaska_Shooter
Well-known member
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Kind of. Younger shooters generally aren’t as interested in the 100 year old designs. That reduces the number of buyers as years go on. There have been similar trends in other collecting markets as the old guys age out.
I don’t shoot many of my MGs anymore. I’m definitely not buying any ever again. There are a number of shooters who were saving for a MG that now look at that $$$ as ridiculous since there are FRTs.
Some people raise the question “so why don’t I sell?”
I’m older, retired, and have significant investments in other areas. I don’t need the money so I don’t sell. I think there’s a very good chance the MGs won’t appreciate much anymore but I’m okay with that risk. When inflation is factored in I bet that water cooled guns in particular might start losing money over time.
I’m especially excited about FRTs giving me new opportunities for guns that have no transferable peer. I’ve always wanted a FA pistol. I have a FRT for a Taurus 22lr and a FRT for a M&P 9mm inbound. If I can get them running they’re going to be glorious.
If I can ever get a FRT shotgun then my grail guns are complete. That’s another gun with no transferable peer
(Yeah I know - I have seen a few tranny shotguns and pistols for sale over the last 30 years. They’re so rare and expensive to basically not exist as an option)
StenAtopia
Well-known member
11-12.5k ymmv
I know the original context of this thread was geared towards M16s, but I'm actually in this situation.
The FRT's are a game changer. I've never been an "AR guy" and could/would never consider a transferable M16. However, I now have an SSAR and will be getting the 10/22 FRT. Probably SBRing to make it a quasi AM180. These will be excellent toys for dumping ammo and have a real cool factor.
That being said, I'm still getting back into the subgun game. I sold my M11 several years ago, and recently realized how much I missed it. Cleaning, modding, reloading, show and tell, subgun matches, the overall simplicity and the mechanics of them. All of this combined is what draws me back to a subgun. Is there a 9mm FRT platform that would allow me to do that? I'm not sure. Like I said, I'm not an AR guy so an AR9 has no appeal to me. I have a semi Scorpion that would be fun with an FRT, but it'd be a challenge to tame the recoil with the blow back short stroke. MP5? Perhaps.
Ultimately there's something about an old open bolt subgun that is very appealing to me. But again, this is me and you can do you
But back to the AR/M16 question- I suspect that lightning links and sears will drop in price slightly (much like registered Uzi bolts), but registered receivers will be ok and probably be unaffected by the FRTs much like others on the thread have said.
I also love the open-bolt experience and feel, and I have a similar relationship with the AR15. At times I try to talk myself into an M16 or even a MP5, but I just can’t muster the enthusiasm to drop that cash (SS is another story…). I particularly love the open-bolt designs where the bolt never bottoms out. So smooth
A&S Conversions
UZI Talk Life Member
Boy, do I miss my Fleming sear. I have almost 25 host guns. More than half are configurations that HK never made. The SD clone in .40 S&W, the MP5K-10, and the 53K AR that uses AR mags. I have a spare 53 four prong flash hider so I can see to aim it. For a big flash, I will spin the flash hider off so there is a threaded squared end of the barrel. The barrel is 5.1”. With NATO green tip the fireball gets to 2.5 to 3 foot diameter. I need to wear gloves (because it will burn the hair off the back of my hand) and shade 5 cutting glasses (because it is like looking into the sun). It feels like I get a sunburn on my face from the infrared when I dump a Beta-C with it.
9mm SD is pretty anemic. As I recall 115 through a SD is only around 260 ft/lbs. It doesn’t knock steel down very well at all. The bullet has such small mass, it splatters but the energy doesn’t carry into the plate steel well. The 165 grain in the SD-40 seems to knock down steel better than full power 9mm. The SD is pretty quiet.
I would love to find some subsonic 220 grain 10mm. That in the 10mm K width my Raptor 40 would be fun. I bet that would really knock the steel down with authority.
I need to talk with Chris at Broad River Tactical. I know that he makes a 9mm SD upper for the AR. If I sent him one of my SD-40s with the can, I wonder if he could make me a rotary delayed SD-40 upper?
It is interesting that I have not seen a MGI or Windham Weaponry modular lower setup with a FRT/SS. I would think someone has done it, I just haven’t seen it.
Scott
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