Five years to hit five grand seems like a stretch to me. I've already seen a few *BEAT* guns with no accessories/extras sell locally for $4000-4500; seems insane to me, given that less than a year ago I got a NIB M11/9 for $2500 along with a pile of new mags but it is what it is.
Re-read my post.
"I'll bet they'll easily hit five grand in less five years for a well used example." Given your examples, that's a 2k spread in price in less than a year. There are always deals to be had just as there are always grossly over priced guns. So tell me, what's the "real" price of a MAC? I suspect we'll need to get past this election year cycle before prices stabilize and you can say with some certainty that a M10 or M11 is worth xxxx.
Never buy NFA as an investment
Wise words. I've never subscribed to the NFA as an investment mantra. Like Chili17, I've made a buck or three selling a gun or two over the years, and I expect we'll continue to see prices move higher and hopefully we'll ALL continue to make a couple of dollars. Buy a machine gun because you can afford it, and you'll enjoy owning and shooting it. Appreciation is a bonus but don't expect it.
Along with the real estate boom and bust cycle, we also saw a machine gun price decline. Yep, prices are on their way back up after the NFA market bubble burst, but the days of over night skyrocketing prices are probably over. A diversified portfolio to include a mixture of stocks is prudent. Look, I'm not the smartest guy on this forum and that's why I pay 1.25% to my financial advisor each month. He does believe in a portfolio that's comprised of limited real assets, (gold, real estate, etc.), in addition to fixed income and equities. Guns may be considered a real asset by some if they are high quality/collectibles.
Consider that new Federal legislation can make your "investment" a worthless paperweight overnight. What legitimate purpose does a machine gun really have in today's modern and liberal leaning society? I suspect we'll see some form of Canadian style legislation passed here in the states one day. When that happens, you'll be able to keep what you own but you can never transfer it and the gun must be surrendered to the government upon your death. Perhaps the price of ammo and reloading components will go sky high as a result of an onerous new federal tax designed to limit all shooting.
Four years ago we saw what fear generated by a presidential election can do to the firearms market. The resulting shortages of most guns, mags, ammo and accessories was unprecedented. It's clear demand is sharply up again in this election year, but it's nowhere near what we saw in 2008. Obama was named gun salesman of the year for good reason, and he may be awarded that honor again this year.
I don't want to come off sounding so negative with the gloom and doom predictions. I expect any new legislation to limit or restrict full auto ownership is many years away, but it is a real possibility. Look at the disarming of the rest of the world for a clue as to the direction this country could be heading. Does anyone not remember the "bitter clinger" remarks four years ago? If this election goes badly, I expect Obama will attempt to pass AWB-2 without a sunset clause.
The 2012 end of the world phenomenon theorists who are also "prepping" and that's driving prices too. Anyone remember the Y2K "crisis"? I sold a beat up Russian SKS to a gun shop for $400 and they tacked on another one hundred and sold it in a day. Never underestimate what fear can do to a market.
My two cents and worth exactly what you paid for it. YMMV
